Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA - Energy, Water, Community (2023)

Forecast for Central Texas

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SunnySunnyMostly Sunny50% Chance PM Rain Showers and T-Storms50% Chance Rain Showers and T-Storms

Updated October 14, 2022

Reports from LCRA’s Hydromet

Rainfall summary
Temperature summary
Humidity summary

Increasing Chances for Rain and Much Cooler Temperatures Early Next Week

Wednesday, October 12, 2022 5:24 PM

Ever since the last widespread rain in early September, the weather has been bone dry across Central Texas. This has been an unusually dry spell of weather as September and October are typically a fairly wet time of the year. But some rain is finally on the horizon for Sunday and early next week.

Wednesday’s forecast data calls for a strong cold front to sweep south across Central Texas Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Ahead of the front, scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop. But an even better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon when a trough of over the Desert Southwest tracks to the northeast, causing a wet and unsettled pattern across much of Texas. The rain is expected to taper off late Tuesday, with dry weather returning Tuesday night.

The National Weather Service is forecasting some nice soaking rains over the upcoming period, with most areas expected to receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain.

NWS Rainfall Forecast for the Period 7 pm Wednesday through 7 pm next Wednesday:

Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA - Energy, Water, Community (11)

Temperatures are forecast to trend much cooler early next week behind Sunday’s cold front. Expect high temperatures in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Bob

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Tropical Storm Karl Develops in the Bay of Campeche

Tuesday, October 11, 2022 4:59 PM

The area of disturbed weather that has persisted over Central America for the past couple of days moved over the Bay of Campeche earlier today and strengthen into a tropical storm and given the name Karl.

Although Karl is located in the Bay of Campeche, the storm and its associated moisture pose no threat to the Texas coast—especially with a cold front forecast to push south across Texas and into the Gulf on Thursday.

As of 4:00 pm CDT Tuesday, the center of Tropical Storm Karl was located about 120 miles east-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening on Thursday.

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NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB 10-11-2022 3:40 pm CDT

Karl was moving toward the northwest near 6 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A gradual turn to the west and west-southwest is expected on Wednesday evening and a turn to the southwest is forecast on Thursday morning. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico on Thursday.

(Video) LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose gives his winter weather forecast

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Bob

Unseasonably Warm Days and Mild Nights to Continue for Another Week

Monday, October 10, 2022 3:40 PM

A stagnant early fall weather pattern remains in place across Central Texas. Despite a weak cold front moving across the area Saturday, temperatures have remained very consistent, featuring warm afternoons and pleasant nights. No significant changes are expected through late week. It appears we will have to wait another week before we see a more noticeable drop in the temperature.

As we start off the new week, sunny conditions are in place across the eastern two-thirds of the state thanks to a weak ridge of high pressure over the area. It’s a different story across West Texas, where waves of low pressure moving north out of Mexico have sparked the development of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. The activity has generally been occurring to the west of a line stretching from Del Rio, to San Angelo, to Wichita Falls. Periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to continue across West Texas tonight through Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, sunny and dry weather looks to persist across the Hill Country, Central, and East Texas through Wednesday.

Forecasts continue to call for a weak cold front to sink south across our region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Unfortunately, the chance for rain along the front has decreased from previous forecasts due to limited moisture and minimal convergence along front. While a couple of spotty rain showers will be possible with the front, most locations will likely stay dry. In advance of the front, southerly winds will bring increasing humidity levels Wednesday into Wednesday night. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures look to develop on Wednesday.

  • High temperatures this afternoon and Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 80s across the Hill Country and coastal regions, and be around 90 degrees across Central Texas.
  • High temperatures Wednesday are forecast to reach the low 90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions, and into the mid-90s across Central Texas.
  • Lows Tuesday morning will generally be in the low 60s.
  • Lows Wednesday morning will be in the mid and upper 60s.

Sunny weather is forecast Thursday through Friday. Drier and just slightly cooler air can be expected behind the cold front Thursday afternoon through Friday.

  • High temperatures Thursday and Friday are forecast to be in the upper 80s.
  • Lows Friday and Saturday mornings are predicted to range from around 58-60 degrees across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s across the Hill Country.

Mostly sunny weather is forecast Saturday. However, southerly winds will return in advance of another cold front sinking south through the Plains states. This front is shaping up to be a little stronger than the front expected Thursday. This next cold front is predicted to track south across our region Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. Forecasts indicate conditions will be more somewhat favorable for the development of light rain showers along and just behind the cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

There are indications a somewhat better chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will also follow next Monday into Tuesday when a weak trough of low pressure over Mexico tracks to the northeast. Forecast solutions are currently indicating we could see totals in excess of a quarter inch. Sunny and dry weather looks to return for the second half of next week. Cooler temperatures will arrive behind the cold front beginning Sunday night.

High temperatures next week are predicted to be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows temperatures are predicted to be in the 50s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Julia pushed west across Central America over the weekend. The system has since weakened to a tropical depression and is located over southern Guatemala. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 35 mph. Julia is predicted to dissipate Monday evening. Julia is forecast to bring heavy rain to much of El Salvador, southern Guatemala, western Honduras, Nicaragua, and Belize through Tuesday.

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NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB 10-10-2022 2:30 pm CDT

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring a trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system will be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday when the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward over the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Increasing upper-level winds should prevent significant development late this week. NHC forecasters are giving this system just a 20 percent chance for development over the next 5 days. Moisture associated with this system is forecast to remain well to the south of Texas.

Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected for at least the next 5 days.

Bob

Outstanding Weather Expected this Weekend and the First Half of Next Week

Friday, October 7, 2022 2:16 PM

The weather over the past week has featured warm days, pleasant nights, and no rain. Similar conditions are forecast to continue this weekend and through the first half of next week as the storm track remains well up to our north and east.

On this Friday, we’re seeing widespread middle and high-level clouds covering Central and South Texas. These clouds are being generated by a weak trough of low pressure that is lifting northeast out of northern Mexico.

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NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB 10/07/2022 1:30 pm

These clouds will cause a mostly cloudy to partly cloudy sky across the region this afternoon and evening. No rain is forecast as moisture levels in the lower atmosphere remain quite low. Despite the clouds, today’s temperature is still forecast to warm to around 88-91 degrees. Expect a light northeasterly wind at 5-8 mph. Lows Saturday morning will range from the low 60s across the Hill Country, the upper 60s across the coastal plains.

Friday’s weather maps showed a weak Canadian cold front situated across the Red River Valley that is pushing to the south. The front is forecast to spread south across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions after midnight Friday night, pushing off the middle Texas coast after sunrise on Saturday. Drier and just slightly cooler air will arrive behind the cold front. Friday’s clouds are predicted to shift to the east late Friday night, opening the door for mostly sunny conditions Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures both days are predicted to be near 88-90 degrees. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will range from around 60 degrees across the Hill Country, to the mid-60s towards the coast. Expect an east to southeasterly breeze at 5-10 mph on both days.

Similar weather conditions are forecast Monday through Wednesday as Texas remains under a weak ridge of high pressure. Expect mostly sunny days with high temperatures near 88-90 degrees and morning lows in the low and mid-60s.

Some changes in the weather pattern are forecast to take place late next week when a large trough of low pressure moves east out of the northern Rockies. The trough will help push a somewhat stronger Canadian cold front south across Texas next Thursday. As of now, just a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast along and just behind the cold front Thursday into Thursday evening. The probability for rain will only be around 20-30 percent and rain amounts should average less than a quarter inch.

There is some potential for the rain to be a bit heavier late next week. Some of today’s forecast solutions call for a portion of the remnant moisture from tropical storm Julia to get pulled north into South Texas late next week. Should this be the case, it could result in more widespread and heavier rains along the cold front. We’ll need to wait a few days to see how this situation will evolve.

Partly cloudy and somewhat cooler weather looks to follow the cold front next Friday and next weekend. Expect high temperatures to be in the low and mid-80s, with low temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Longer-range forecasts call for even cooler temperatures for the week of October 17th, with highs dropping close to 80 degrees, and lows in the 50s.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The tropical depression over the southern Caribbean Sea strengthened Friday morning and has now become Tropical Strom Julia. As of 1 pm CDT, the center of tropical storm Julia was located about 150 miles north-northeast of Barranquilla, Columbia. Julia was moving toward the west near 18 mph. A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days, passing near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday evening, reaching the coast of Nicaragua Sunday morning. After landfall, Julia or its remnants are expected to turn west-northwestward and move across Central America through Monday. Maximum sustained winds were near 40 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Julia is expected to become a hurricane by Saturday evening before it reaches San Andres and Providencia Islands, and the coast of Nicaragua.

(Video) LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose on weather expected for the second half of summer

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NOAA/CIRA/RAMMB 10/07/2022 1:30 pm CDT

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Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, conditions are quiet. There are no systems in place which pose a threat for tropical development over the next 5 days.

The October Full Moon this Weekend

The October full moon, often referred to as the “Hunter’s Moon,” will take place this Sunday at 3:55 pm CDT. This means we will be treated to a nearly full moon on both Saturday and Sunday nights. The moon will rise shortly after sunset on both nights. When checking out the moon, look for very bright Jupiter almost two fists to its upper right of the moon. The two objects will move higher in the sky as evening proceeds.

Have a good weekend!

Bob

Watching for More Tropical Development Near the Windward Islands

Tuesday, October 4, 2022 4:41 PM

A new tropical system may develop in the Caribbean Sea later this week. National Hurricane Center forecasters are closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. This system is producing a fairly large area of showers and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined center.

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NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 10/04/22 1:30 pm CDT

Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for tropical development, but will likely become more conducive for development over the next couple of days. A tropical depression could form if the system stays far enough away from land as it moves westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and southeastern Caribbean Sea. Conditions appear to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches

the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was investigating the disturbance Tuesday afternoon, and its data will help determine if the system is indeed developing.

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The area of low pressure is being pushed to the west by an east-west oriented ridge of high pressure that currently stretches from the southwestern Atlantic, to the Bay of Campeche. Th position of the ridge is unlike the pattern that was in place last week with Ian, where a trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. pulled the hurricane north across Florida and into the Carolinas. In the current pattern, upper-level winds flowing around the ridge are predicted to push the low westward toward Central America. With the ridge in place, a path toward the western Gulf of Mexico appears very unlikely.

Bob

Few Changes in the Weather Expected this Week. Still No Rain on the Horizon

Monday, October 3, 2022 2:35 PM

A quiet, early-fall weather pattern continues across Texas. Canadian high pressure ridging south into the state is causing warm days and pleasantly cool nights. Over the weekend, temperatures dipped into the 40s and 50s across the Hill Country and Central Texas regions. These are the coolest readings observed across the area since last April. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, the lowest observed temperature over the past couple of days has been 43 degrees, at a gauge located in southern Llano County, about 10 miles north-northeast of Willow City. In Austin, Camp Mabry’s lowest temperature so far has been 55 degrees. Austin-Bergstrom’s lowest temperature so far has been 48 degrees.

Monday’s analysis showed a very stable weather pattern across Texas, thanks to a broad ridge of high pressure in the middle and upper atmosphere. At the surface, Canadian high pressure is ridging into Texas from the Great Lakes region, bringing in dry and slightly cooler air. The dry air has been responsible for the recent stretch of warm days and cool nights. Forecasts call for few changes in the weather this week as the ridge of high pressure remains over our area. Expect a mostly sunny sky through Friday. Slightly milder overnight low temperatures are forecast Thursday and Friday mornings due to a bit higher relative humidity levels.

  • High temperatures this afternoon through Friday are forecast to be in the upper 80s across the Hill Country and coastal regions. Across Central Texas, readings look to climb up to 90 degrees beginning Tuesday.
  • Low temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are predicted to be in mostly in the mid and upper 50s.
  • Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will range from the upper 50s west, to the mid-60s near the coast.

A Canadian cold front is forecast to push south across our area Friday night, bringing with it a reinforcing shot of cool, dry air. With limited moisture in place, no rain is expected with the front. Expect a mostly sunny sky and somewhat breezy conditions over the weekend. High temperatures are predicted to be in the mid and upper 80s, while low temperatures will be in the 50s.

Few changes are predicted through the first half of next week. Expect continued sunny weather, with high temperatures around 88-90 degrees.

There are indications a slight chance to a chance for rain will develop across the area late next week when a rough of low pressure moves east out of the Desert Southwest. Increasing moisture off the Gulf may lead to the development of some scattered rain showers across the area. However, significant totals of rain are not expected.

Dry weather and slightly cooler air will follow in the wake of the trough next weekend, with high temperatures falling to the low 80s. Low temperatures will continue in the 50s.

Tropical Weather Update

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring a tropical wave located in the central tropical Atlantic, several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. This system is producing numerous disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, NHC forecasters do indicate slow tropical development will be possible during the next several days while the wave moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph. The system is forecast to reach the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. NHC forecasters are giving this system just a 20 percent chance for development over the next 2 days, and a 30 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.

Over in the far eastern tropical Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms have increased today in association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two. Further development will become less likely late this week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to move west-northwestward and then turn northwestward into the eastern tropical Atlantic by midweek. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 70 percent chance for development over the next 5 days.

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Elsewhere, conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5 days.

Bob

(Video) LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose on spring, rain and the persistent drought

No Rain Expected through Late Next Week. Temperatures Staying Very Consistent

Friday, September 30, 2022 1:54 PM

The weather has been great this week! Although the days have been warm, the nights have been pleasantly cool and the relative humidity has been low. According to LCRA’s Hydromet, temperatures early Friday morning dipped into the 50s to low 60s at all locations. Similar conditions look to continue this weekend and all of next week.

Friday’s weather maps showed as broad, stable ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere located over Texas and the southern Plains states. The ridge is keeping our weather dry and very stable. Meanwhile at the surface, a Canadian air mass extends from the Great Lakes to South Texas. A weak cold front will push south through our region late Friday night that will reinforce the sunny and early fall-like pattern for Sunday and the first half of next week. Expect a light northeasterly wind today through Tuesday.

  • High temperatures this afternoon through next Wednesday are forecast to be mostly in the upper 80s. A few spots along the Interstate 35, including Austin, could reach close to 90-92 degrees.
  • Lows Saturday and Sunday mornings will generally be in the mid and upper 50s across the region.
  • Lows Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will range from the mid-50s across the Hill Country, to the low 60s near the coast.

Forecasters are closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Orlene located off the coast of Southern Mexico, roughly 270 miles southwest of Manzanillo. Orlene is currently packing top winds of 60 mph and moving toward the northwest at 5 mph. Orlene is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Friday night or Saturday, then push inland along the west coast of Mexico sometime early Monday. Orlene is predicted to decay fairly rapidly over the mountains of northwestern Mexico Monday into Tuesday. Rain associated with the tropical system is forecast to extend across northern and north central Mexico early next week, but stay well to the south and west of Texas. However, high-level clouds associated with the decaying tropical cyclone may spread over parts of the Hill Country and Central Texas next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Another weak cold front is forecast to push south through the region next Thursday that will reinforce the sunny, dry and autumn-like weather pattern for late next week and next weekend. Expect highs around 90 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Looking out into the week of October 10th, some changes in the weather pattern look to take place around the 11th into the 12th when a trough of low pressure is forecast to track east across the southern Plains states, pulling Gulf moisture north into South and Central Texas. This will result in a chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. As of now, significant totals of rain are not expected. Dry and slightly cooler weather looks to follow Thursday and Friday. No significant change in the temperature is forecast throughout the week.

There are still no signs of that first “good” autumn cold front looking out through the middle of October.

Tropical Weather Update

All eyes are on Hurricane Ian. Surface observations indicate that the center of Hurricane Ian made landfall at 1:05 pm CDT near Georgetown, South Carolina with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Ian should weaken rapidly after landfall and transition into a post-tropical cyclone Friday night. Ian should dissipate over western North Carolina or Virginia late Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding, and minor river flooding is possible across coastal and northeast South Carolina, coastal North Carolina, and southeast Virginia today.

Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA - Energy, Water, Community (22)
NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 09/30/2022 1:10 pm CDT

Forecasters are also monitoring a tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. This system is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 60 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA - Energy, Water, Community (23)

Elsewhere, conditions are quiet and tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5 days.

Spot the International Space Station

There will be opportunities to spot the International Space Station across Central Texas starting Sunday evening, continuing each evening next week. For times and locations to look for your specific location, visit NASA’s Spot the Station website: https://spotthestation.nasa.gov

Have a great weekend!

Bob

Tropical Depression Nine Develops. Meanwhile, Our Weather Looks to Stay Sunny and Dry

Friday, September 23, 2022 12:42 PM

The strong tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea which forecasters have been monitoring for the past few days has strengthened into a tropical depression. The system possesses a well-defined circulation with strong thunderstorms mainly on the west side of the center. As of late Friday morning, tropical depression Nine was located over the Caribbean Sea, roughly 515 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast today through Saturday, but more significant intensification is forecast Sunday into Monday. The depression is predicted to become a tropical storm Friday night, and a hurricane sometime Sunday night.

Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA - Energy, Water, Community (24)
NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 09/23/2022 11:40 am CDT

The depression is currently moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph. A more westward motion is expected to begin later today and continue through Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and northwest Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass south of Jamaica Saturday night and Sunday, then approach the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday.

The forecast path beyond Monday is still somewhat uncertain. However, based on the latest National Hurricane Center forecast and computer-model solutions, it appears a track toward the western Gulf of Mexico and the Texas coast is pretty remote. A trough of low pressure digging south across the eastern U.S. is predicted to pull the tropical system to the north and northeast—not allowing it to move into the western Gulf. NHC’s 5-day forecast calls for the system to make landfall somewhere along the Florida peninsula late Tuesday or Wednesday, with the highest likelihood being somewhere along the peninsula’s west coast.

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Across Central Texas, weather conditions continue to be very quiet. The heat is going to be the area’s biggest weather story through the weekend. A ridge of high pressure, or heat dome, of July-like intensity is in place across much of the southern U.S. The ridge is forecast to remain in place through Saturday, then begin to weaken and shift to our west on Sunday. This will translate to more sunny, dry, and hot weather for our area through the weekend. Expect light south and southwesterly breezes at 5-10 mph.

  • High temperatures Friday through Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across the Hill Country, be in the range of 98-100 degrees across Central Texas, and be in the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

A trough of low pressure is forecast to dig south through the middle Mississippi Valley region late Sunday. This trough will help push a cold front southeast across Texas late Sunday into Monday. The front is forecast to push off the middle Texas coast Monday afternoon. Unfortunately, with limited moisture in place, no rain is expected with the cold front. Monday’s weather will be sunny and warm. High temperatures will range from around 90 degrees across the northern Hill Country, to the mid-90s across the coastal plains.

Sunny and dry weather will be in place next Tuesday through Friday as a very stable atmosphere sets up across Texas. Monday’s cold front will being drier and just slightly cooler air for the week. While the afternoons will still be warm, the nighttime should be noticeably cooler.

  • High temperatures next Tuesday through Friday are forecast to be in the upper 80s across the Hill Country, in the low 90s across Central Texas and the middle Texas coast.
  • Low temperatures Tuesday through Saturday mornings are forecast to be near 58-60 degrees across the Hill Country, and in the low 60s across Central Texas and the coastal plains.

Sunny, dry and warmer weather is forecast next weekend and the week of October 3rd as a ridge of high pressure spreads back across Texas. Expect high temperatures to be in the low to mid-90s, and lows around 70 degrees.

Tropical Weather Update

(Video) LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose on hurricane season potential

In addition to Tropical Depression Nine, National Hurricane Center forecasters are also following major hurricane Fiona, headed toward Atlantic Canada, and tropical storm Gaston located northwest of the Azores.

A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Despite marginal environmental conditions, some slow development of this system will be possible over the next several days while it drifts northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 30 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Finally, shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located between the Cabo Verde Islands and the west coastof Africa is showing increased signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for further development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves northward at about 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of west Africa. NHC forecasters are giving this system an 80 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Mars Has Returned to the Evening/Nighttime Sky

After spending several months in the early morning sky, Mars is now joining Jupiter and Saturn in the nighttime sky. Mars, shining at magnitude –0.6 is located in Taurus. It rises between 10 and 11 pm and gains altitude for the rest of the night. Mars is four times as bright as Mars-colored Aldebaran, magnitude +0.9, sparkling to its right.

Enjoy this first weekend of autumn! (although it will feel more like the middle of summer)

Bob

Monitoring a Developing Tropical Wave Near the Windward Islands

Wednesday, September 21, 2022 5:58 PM

Forecasters are closely monitoring a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The wave is moving to the west at 10-15mph. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are accompanying this wave axis. According to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, the system is beginning to show signs of organization, and the wave will likely strengthen into a tropical depression within the next couple of days. Thedisturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands today, then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to survey the system Wednesday evening. NHC forecasters are giving this system a high chance, a 90 percent chance, for tropical development over the next 5 days.

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NOAA/Colorado State University/RAMMB 09/21/2022 1:10 pm CDT

Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA - Energy, Water, Community (27)

Global deterministic and ensemble guidance calls for the tropical system to enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico sometime early next week. Much of the longer term track will depend on how this system will eventually interact with a trough of low pressure located over the eastern U.S. and how the system eventually gets pulled northward out of the tropics. As of now, this system appears to be a threat mainly to Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and not so much toward Texas.

Stay tuned for additional updates and forecasts over the next couple of days.

Bob

Triple-Digit Temperatures Possible Wednesday through Friday. Dry throughout the Week

Monday, September 19, 2022 3:06 PM

Although autumn begins Thursday, it appears summer will not be giving up without providing our region one last spell of July/August like temperatures. A strengthening ridge of high pressure, or heat dome, over the southern Plains states this week is expected to spike high temperatures close to, or in some cases up to 100 degrees.

Monday’s weather maps showed the heat dome was already taking shape across Texas and the southern Plains states, with the center currently located over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Forecasts call for the heat dome to remain over this same general area through the end of the week, with the ridge predicted to reach its greatest intensity Wednesday through Friday. The ridge will cause a pattern of dry, hot and stable weather throughout the week and into the upcoming weekend.

This afternoon, an area of lingering moisture along the middle and upper Texas coast will cause a 30 percent chance for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Spotty totals to around a quarter inch will be possible. The chance for rain across the coastal region will diminish Tuesday as the atmosphere dries out and becomes increasingly more stable. Meanwhile, the Hill Country and Central Texas regions look to remain rain-free this afternoon and throughout the week.

  • High temperatures today and Tuesday are forecast to be in the upper 90s across Central Texas, and in the low to mid-90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions.
  • High temperatures Wednesday through Friday are forecast to be near 98-100 degrees across Central Texas, and in the mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country and coastal regions.
  • Low temperatures throughout the week will range from 70 degrees across the Hill Country, the mid-70s across the coastal plains.

The temperature is forecast to trend slightly lower this weekend as the ridge of high pressure over Texas begins to weaken. Expect a sunny sky both days.

  • High temperatures Saturday will include the upper 90s across Central Texas, and mid-90s at most other locations
  • High temperatures Sunday are forecast to be in the mid-90s across Central Texas, with lower 90s forecast for most other locations.

Small changes in the weather are predicted to take place next Monday when trough of low pressure tracking east across the Plains helps push a weak cold front south through Texas. The front is predicted to push off the middle Texas coast Monday afternoon. An area of light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms is predicted to accompany the cold front Monday morning as it moves to the south. Unfortunately, widespread rains are not expected due to the lack of significant moisture. Most rain amounts are forecast to average less than a quarter inch.

Dry and slightly cooler air is expected to follow the cold front beginning Monday afternoon, continuing through late week. Next week’s high temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s across Central Texas, with lower 90s expected at most other locations. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s.

Weather conditions are forecast to remain dry late next week into the following weekend as our region remains under the influence of a weak ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere.

Tropical Weather Update

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic, several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. This system is currently producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while the system approaches the Windward Islands toward the end of the week and moves over the eastern Caribbean sea over the weekend. NHC forecasters are giving this system a 20 percent chance for tropical development over the next 5 days.

Fiona strengthened into a hurricane over the weekend and tracked across the southwestern coast of Puerto Rico on Sunday. The hurricane brought catastrophic flooding to much of Puerto Rico, which is still ongoing. As of early Monday afternoon, Hurricane Fiona was located about 165 miles southeast of Grand Turk Island. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and

Fiona is forecast to become a major hurricane by Wednesday. Fiona is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Tuesday and to the north on Wednesday. Based on the forecast track, the center of Fiona will pass near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos on Tuesday.Looking out longer-term, Fiona is forecast to turn to the north Wednesday, and to the northeast Thursday into Friday. On this track, Fiona is forecast to pass very close to Bermuda on Friday, then accelerated northeast to Newfoundland Saturday.

Forecasters are also monitoring an area of low pressure located over the central subtropical Atlantic. Some slow development of this system will be possible over the next couple of days before less favorable late this week. This system poses no threat to the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico.

Bob Rose on the weather - LCRA - Energy, Water, Community (28)

(Video) LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose on the growing likelihood of El Niño

Autumn Arrives Thursday Evening

The autumnal equinox—also called the September equinox or fall equinox—arrives this Thursday, September 22 at 8:04 pm CDT. This date marks the start of fall in the Northern Hemisphere and spring in the Southern Hemisphere. During the equinox, the Sun crosses what we call the “celestial equator”—an imaginary extension of Earth’s equator line into space. The equinox occurs precisely when the Sun’s center passes through this line. On the day of the equinox, day nights are roughly 12 hours long all across the globe. After the autumnal equinox, days become shorter than nights across the Northern Hemisphere as the Sun continues to rise later and nightfall arrives earlier. This ends with the winter solstice, after which days will start to grow longer once again.

Bob

FAQs

Will Texas have a cold winter 2023? ›

According to a graphic they released, predictions say Texans can expect chilly weather with normal amounts of precipitation. Farmers' Almanac is predicting a winter filled with shakes, shivers, and shoveling! The 2023 Farmers' Almanac will be available for purchase in stores starting Aug.

What does the Farmers Almanac say about winter 2022 in Texas? ›

November 2022 to October 2023. Winter will be colder than normal, with the coldest periods in early to mid-January and early to mid-February. Precipitation will be below average, but snowfall will be above average in the north, with the best chances for snow in mid- to late January and early February.

What is the long range weather forecast for Central Texas? ›

Summer will be hotter and drier than normal, with the hottest periods in late June, early to mid-July, and early August. Watch for tropical storms in late July and mid-August. September and October will be warmer than normal, with below-normal rainfall in the north and near-normal rainfall in the south, on average.

Why is it so windy in Austin? ›

It is due to Austin being in the crossroads of different air masses. Pretty much a battle ground of cold air mass descending from the north and the warm air mass from the Gulf of Mexico.

Will 2022 be a rough winter? ›

Winter will be warmer than normal, with above-normal precipitation. The coldest periods will be in late November, mid- and late December, and mid- January. Snowfall will be below normal in most areas that normally receive snow, with the snowiest periods in early to mid-January and early February.

What will the winter be like in 2022 for Texas? ›

NOAA 2022-23 Winter Outlook calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in Central Texas. As we enter our third consecutive La Niña winter, the odds remain tilted toward warmer and drier than normal weather in Texas.

Will Texas Have Another winter Storm 2023? ›

Precipitation-wise, the Farmers' Almanac is predicting a stormy winter, especially for the eastern half of the country. January 2023 looks to be the stormiest for many areas including Texas and Oklahoma, where heavy snow is predicted during the first week.

Is it going to snow in Texas in January 2022? ›

The North Texas Snowstorm of 2022 was a historic snow event that buried the Southern United States , most notably North Texas, with over 2 feet of snow from January 16 to January 19.

Will the summer 2022 be hot in Texas? ›

You've lived through one of the hottest summers in Central Texas history! Summer 2022 will go down in the history books as one of the hottest and driest.

What will Texas climate be like in 2050? ›

Texas' population is on track to double by 2050. Climate change will bring more floods, more droughts and more heat. In order to thrive, we need innovative strategies to equitably adapt to these new realities and to mitigate negative impacts on our communities.

What is the coldest month in Central Texas? ›

January is typically the coldest month of the year in Central Texas with Jan. 2-13, averaging the coldest temperatures of the year.

What is the coldest month in Texas? ›

The coldest month of the year in Winters is January, with an average low of 36°F and high of 59°F.

Is Austin Texas Tornado Alley? ›

And although Austin is not part of "Tornado Alley," extending from north Texas into Oklahoma, the city has had a few twisters strike the area. The most destructive twisters arrived on May 4, 1922, when a single super cell created both twisters: one headed for East Austin and a second tornado ripped through downtown.

What part of Austin is growing the fastest? ›

Population growth in two Austin suburbs is exploding. Estimates released Thursday, May 26 by the U.S. Census Bureau rank Georgetown and Leander Nos. 1 and 2, respectively for population growth from July 2020 to July 2021.

Is Texas expecting another Freeze 2022? ›

The Farmers Almanac winter weather forecast predicts that Texas will see unseasonably cold temperatures for the 2022-2023 season. Despite the frigid forecast, however, precipitation should be nearly normal.

Is this year gonna be hot 2022? ›

The average global temperature for 2022 is forecast to be between 0.97°C and 1.21°C (with a central estimate of 1.09 °C) above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900): the eighth year in succession when temperatures have exceeded 1.0°C above pre-industrial levels.

Why is it so cold this year 2022? ›

A Polar Vortex is emerging in the Stratosphere over the North Pole and will impact the weather as we head closer to Winter 2022/2023. A Polar Vortex is now emerging in the Stratosphere over the North Pole. It began forming as seasonal cooling intensified and will continue to strengthen well into the Winter of 2022/2023 ...

Will there be an El Nino in 2023? ›

However, as the 3rd year of La Nina continues, Climate Impact Company is forecasting El Nino to form later in 2023. By early next year, the very warm SSTA pattern enhanced by the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) in the far eastern equatorial Indian Ocean will fade.

Is 2022 a drought year in Texas? ›

What is causing the Texas 2022 drought? Texas has been in a drought since September 2021, Nielsen-Gammon said, and that's due to several factors, including climate patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Will 2023 be a hard winter? ›

Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South with wetter-than-average conditions for areas of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest.

What will winter be like in Texas 2023? ›

NOAA's Winter forecast for Texas

The drier than normal conditions would continue to worsen our drought, which is already getting worse after some recent improvements. The Climate Prediction Center's drought outlook through the end of January, 2023 expects drought to continue or worsen throughout most of Texas.

Is 2022 2023 an El Nino or La Niña? ›

5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña. The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023 [Fig. 6].

Will Texas get snow every year? ›

Winter in Texas can range from sunny, warm days to chilly and snowy weather. Now, snow is a special occurrence in Texas. However, it can be spotted once a year in certain regions of the state. Areas in the Panhandle and West Texas seem to see more snow compared to the rest of the state.

How long does winter last in Texas? ›

Winter (December through February)

Weather is too cold this time of year in Texas to be enjoyable for warm weather travelers. The average high during this season is between 69.3°F (20.7°C) and 59°F (15°C).

Will there be another polar vortex in 2022? ›

Stratospheric Polar Vortex returns for Winter 2021/2022, together with a strong easterly wind anomaly high above the Equator, impacting the Winter season. This is a year old but I thought it was very interesting.

What will the hottest day of 2022 be? ›

07/20/2022: The hottest day of the year.

What was the hottest day in Texas in 2022? ›

Monday's high was 109 at DFW, making it the hottest day of 2022 | Weather | dentonrc.com.

Why is there a heatwave 2022? ›

In early September 2022, a long-lasting heat dome settled over the U.S. West and brought scorching temperatures that set all-time record highs. The extreme heat fueled wildfires and stressed the power grid before an eastern Pacific tropical storm moved into the region and broke the warm spell.

What states will be hit hardest by climate change? ›

Worst States for Climate Change: Natural Hazards
  • California.
  • Colorado.
  • New Mexico.
  • Oklahoma.
  • Texas.
10 Aug 2022

What states will survive climate change? ›

The five best states for climate change
  • Michigan. The Great Lakes State takes the top spot in our index thanks in large part to its fairly low susceptibility to most of the major climate threats. ...
  • Vermont. ...
  • Pennsylvania. ...
  • Colorado. ...
  • Minnesota. ...
  • Florida. ...
  • Mississippi. ...
  • Louisiana.
5 Oct 2022

What cities will be submerged in 2050? ›

on the other hand, numerous and heavily populated sinking cities like mumbai, shanghai, nyc, and miami are at risk. 'with a population of 10 million, jakarta is considered by some to be the fastest-sinking city in the world and is projected to be entirely underwater by 2050.

What city in Texas has the best year round weather? ›

According to historical and meteorological data, Houston has the best weather of the six major cities: Houston. San Antonio.

Which city in Texas is the coldest? ›

The lowest temperature ever recorded in the state occurred at Tulia in Swisher County in the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. The thermometer dropped to 23 degrees below zero.

What is the rainiest city in the US? ›

The wettest city in the U.S. is Hilo, Hawaii, where it rains 211 days a year. Interestingly, Hilo gets between 10 and 40 times as much rain as some other parts of the Big Island. It also rains and snows a lot in Alaska. Sitka gets about 86 inches of precipitation a year over a whopping 173 days.

Is it hotter in Texas or Arizona? ›

Typically, Arizona is much hotter. The highest temperature ever recorded in Texas was 120F. In Arizona, it was 128F.

What part of Texas is always cold? ›

The panhandle region, farthest from the Gulf of Mexico, experiences colder winters than the other regions of Texas, where occasional wintertime Arctic blasts can cause temperatures to plunge to well below freezing and bring snowy conditions.

What is hottest month in Texas? ›

The warmest month of the year is typically August, with a mean temperature of 83.8 degrees. The peak of the summer? July 31 to Aug. 13, based on the average daily high temperature of 94.

Which City in Texas has the most tornadoes? ›

Houston experiences the most tornadoes of any other city in Texas, ringing in at 242 in total from 1950 to 2021, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). [2] "Storm Events Database." Accessed May 20, 2022.

What region of Texas has the highest risk of tornadoes? ›

Tornadoes occur with greatest frequency in the Red River Valley of North Texas.

What town gets the most tornadoes? ›

Correcting For County Area
Tornado Segment Density (per 100 square miles)Tornado Segments
1) Pinellas (Florida)46.43130
2) Galveston (Texas)29.32117
3) Oklahoma (Oklahoma)19.75140
4) Cleveland (Oklahoma)19.22103
6 more rows
15 Apr 2021

What is the wealthy area in Austin? ›

With a median home price of $3,002,646 and a median rent of $1,708, Tarrytown is the most expensive neighborhood on our list. Based on the growth in home prices in Tarrytown over the last 3 years, it ranks No. 1 among all the neighborhoods in Austin.

Is Austin housing a bubble? ›

Austin is arguably in the largest housing bubble in America based on the fundamental data,” said Reventure Consulting CEO Nicholas Gerli.

What is winter going to be like this year in Texas? ›

According to this year's forecast, Texas is in store for a “chilly” winter with “normal precipitation,” with North Texas seeing the most potential for snow and ice storms throughout the season.

When was the last hard freeze in Texas? ›

In early February 2021, Winter Storm Uri hit Texas and crippled the state as temperatures dropped to as low as six degrees.

Will there be another winter storm in Texas 2023? ›

January 2023 looks to be the stormiest for many areas including Texas and Oklahoma, where heavy snow is predicted during the first week. Conversely, a dry winter is predicted for the Southwest states, exacerbating the ongoing drought situation.

Is Texas going to get another freeze in 2022? ›

The Farmers Almanac winter weather forecast predicts that Texas will see unseasonably cold temperatures for the 2022-2023 season.

Is Texas going to get a winter? ›

Texans can expect the winter weather forecast to be warmer than normal and drier than normal, according to the National Weather Service. The NOAA released its three-month outlook from Dec. 2022 to Feb. 2023, and forecasts show a trend the Lone Star State has seen in recent years.

Is 2022 2023 an El Nino or La Nina? ›

5]. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña. The most recent IRI plume forecast of the Niño-3.4 SST index indicates La Niña will persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2022-23, and then transition to ENSO-neutral in February-April 2023 [Fig. 6].

Is Texas becoming drier? ›

Due to climate change, Texas will likely see more, longer and drier droughts over the next century, Nielsen-Gammon said.

Will winters get worse in the future? ›

Across the United States, winters are already growing warmer and shorter as a result of climate change, and that trend is expected to continue in the future.

Why is Texas getting colder? ›

So what explains Texas' cold snap in 2021? A warming earth has brought milder winters, but emerging science suggests that extreme cold spells in Texas could also result from climate change messing with complex weather processes.

What type of winter will Texas have? ›

According to this year's forecast, Texas is in store for a “chilly” winter with “normal precipitation,” with North Texas seeing the most potential for snow and ice storms throughout the season.

Is Texas getting hotter every year? ›

Texas is getting hotter — even at night

Even minor shifts in average temperatures require more electricity from the power grid, endanger the health of people who work outdoors, and can alter climate patterns and ecosystems.

Why is Texas having a hot winter? ›

Nielsen-Gammon, also a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, said seasonal temperatures in Texas average around 2 degrees warmer now compared to the 20th century because of climate change.

Videos

1. LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose talks about the summer season
(Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA))
2. Bob's LCRA Video Blog: What does the summer forecast look like?
(Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA))
3. Winter weather outlook with Meteorologist Bob Rose
(Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA))
4. With a dry August behind us, when will El Niño return?
(Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA))
5. El Niño ties a record
(Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA))
6. LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose reflects on wettest October on record for Austin
(Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA))
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